A year ago, the Bengals were the ultimate underdog story en route to their first Super Bowl appearance in 33 years. This time, they’re among the favorites to win it all – and they’re heavily favored to beat the short-handed Ravens in a rematch of these teams’ regular-season finale.
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Baltimore will once again be without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson, who also sat out last week’s 27-16 loss in Cincinnati. The betting market expects a similar result on Sunday, with the Bengals dealing as nearly double-digit favorites at most shops to beat their division rivals.
Here’s how we’re betting Sunday’s NFL playoff contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC.
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Bengals vs. Ravens pick
- Ravens +9 (-110 BetMGM)
Bengals vs. Ravens prediction and analysis
This certainly isn’t the popular bet to make, with over 90% of bets at BetMGM coming in on the Bengals as of midweek before the news of Jackson’s absence briefly bumped this line up to 10 points. That said, there’s just too much value to ignore on the underdog here, quarterback issues and all.
On paper, this matchup pits two of the best teams in the league. The Bengals rank fifth in DVOA entering across the entire season with a top-12 ranking on offense (fourth) and defense (11th). The Ravens sit seventh overall with similarly high marks on offense (12th) and defense (seventh), even with Jackson sidelined for the better part of the last six weeks.
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In fact, before their Week 18 clash – when coach John Harbaugh practically waved the white flag before the game even started – Baltimore actually ranked slightly higher in net yards per play (10th) than Cincinnati (12th). It also beat the Bengals outright when these teams met back in Week 5, albeit with Jackson under center.
That came amid a dominant stretch for the Ravens, who looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders after one of the best starts in NFL history. Baltimore became just the third team ever to boast a double-digit lead in each of its first 10 games, all while never trailing by double digits. It only won seven of those games, though, as late-game lapses on defense and Jackson’s own fourth-quarter woes reared their ugly head.
Then, something curious happened. Jackson went down in Week 13, and the offense predictably stumbled. But the Ravens’ defense came alive.
Heading into that semi-meaningless finale, Baltimore had allowed the NFL’s fewest points per game (13.1) and third-fewest yards per game (292.8) since Week 13, holding five straight opponents to 16 or fewer points. Midseason addition Roquan Smith has anchored a truly elite defense that ranks first in EPA/play (0.11) and second in opponent explosive play rate (8.3%) when he’s on the field.
That’s a crucial development ahead of Sunday’s matchup with the Bengals, who own a dangerous downfield passing game with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase leading the way. Burrow has also been a bettor’s best friend over the last two years, covering in a ridiculous 19 of his last 23 starts with a perfect 4-0 record against the spread in last year’s postseason.
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This week’s game poses a unique challenge for Burrow and Co. from a betting perspective, though. In the last 21 postseasons, we’ve only seen 20 teams favored by at least a touchdown in a game with a total of 41 or lower. Those teams went 7-12-1 against the spread – including a 2-6-1 ATS run since 2011 – and of the seven teams that covered, four of them won by 14 or fewer points.
Translation: there’s a narrow window to win big in a low-scoring game, which this one should be with the way Baltimore’s defense has played down the stretch. Yes, there are serious questions offensively for the road ‘dogs, and an outright win would be a tough feat to pull off. But this number is too gaudy to lay in a matchup between two elite rosters with a whole lot of familiarity.
Bengals vs. Ravens odds (via BetMGM)
- Bengals -9 (-110), moneyline -500
- Ravens +9 (-110), moneyline +360
- O/U 40.5 (-110)